2025 J.P. Morgan M&A Outlook
Summary
Price/Earnings Multiples
Diversified Industries Growth
Watch Your Step
STATS:
50% of the global population held major elections with results providing clairty on economic policy.
(J.P. Morgan 2025 M&A Outlook, page 8)
In the next three years, approximately 27.1% or 1,318, of the current S&P 500 independent directors will surpass the age of 72…aka the “Age Cliff.”
(J.P. Morgan 2025 M&A Outlook, page 23)
J.P. Morgan Global Head of Advisory and Mergers & Acquisitions Anu Aiyengar said, “animal spirits are back with high optimism in the business community. The 2025 outlook for debt, equity, and M&A markets is positive, driven by expected declining interest rates, a more favorable IPO market, and a potentially easier to navigate regulatory framework (page 2). “
What does this mean for MEP M&A?
Market stability = More smart acquisitions.
When the market chills out, companies start thinking bigger. We’re talking strategic M&A — the kind that lets MEP firms grab the latest tech like energy-efficient systems, automation, or smart building solutions. These aren’t just buzzwords. They’re the future. Companies see this as a chance to scale, grab cutting-edge capabilities, or even consolidate to keep up with the competition.
Price/Earnings Multiples
The above is not directly for the middle-market…
If the big bulls win, the lower-middle market wins (directional conviction not absolute).
Look at 2020 — acquisitions were also affected during that time.
The important point in the chart is to notice the trend and note that large companies are trading at +9.5x multiples.
Lower middle market firms are much closer to mid-single digits depending on growth and depending on who the buyer is.
Diversified Industries Growth
What does this mean for MEP M&A?
The market as a whole is growing…in other words you could do a whole lot of nothing and still grow, maybe.
However, we must follow the quote, “when things are good, you are not a good as you think; and when things are bad, you are not as bas you think you are.”
“This too shall pass” and owners cannot avoid basic fundamentals.
Watch Your Step
What does this mean for MEP M&A?
It’s not always about deals. Our job is to think outside of the box and think strategically of the whole portfolio.
Trades, Tariffs & Taxes. Suppliers. Maybe we need to rethink how the Fergusons’ and the Tranes’ are doing business and where the materials are coming from.
If the company has enough working capital should you go ahead and stock up?
-Just a man
CITATION - https://www.jpmorgan.com/investment-banking/mergers-and-acquisitions-market-outlook
